Photo: Capstragram / Russian Machine Never BreaksAlex Ovechkin scored the 500th (and 501th) NHL regular season goals of his illustrious career. Both goals look like the standard Ovechkin goals; the first was a power play slapshot from the “Ovi Spot”, the second an impressive skate down the ice, deking past the likely Norris trophy finalist Erik Karlsson. What’s non-standard about this feat is that he accomplished it as fifth fastest in league history, which is absurd given the paucity of goals to go around in this era of impressive goaltending. How can we compare this to Wayne Gretzky, who scored his 500 goals in 575 games, but played during a shooter’s era?

Thanks to Hockey Reference, we can compare the two shooters performance year-by-year, as according to their age. For context, Ovechkin started playing in his 20th year and Gretzky in his 19th Year, so I’ve matched them up by their age during the season they played. Then I used the formula to see how many goals they scored as compared to the team goal per game average for that season. Stated succinctly:

Goal Share = Player’s GPG / Seasonal GPGSo how do they compare? For the first few years, their goal share tracked together quite tightly. This even includes the last few years of Boudreau and the half season of Dale Hunter which really clamped down on Ovechkin’s production. But after Oates came in (and despite his questionable coaching of the team), Alex Ovechkin was allowed to flourish again. And for 4 straight seasons, Alex Ovechkin is scoring at a phenomenal rate. At the same age that Gretzky stopped scoring (as much), Ovi is still giving goalies fits into his 30th year season. How is he doing this?

Alex Ovechkin has a machine gun for a hockey stick. Hockey-Reference doesn’t have shot numbers data prior to Gretzky’s 24th year, but for the data we do have, he’s one of the league’s most prolific shooters. Put simply: The NHL still has not figured out that Ovi will get the puck and shoot, especially on the powerplay. Perhaps, no one will ever figure him out. The only thing stopping him is… better goalies. Here is the league’s average save percentage per age-season:

Gretzky: 1983–84 <-> 1998–99 Ovechkin 2005–06 <-> 2015–16Goalies have been getting better season over season, which has been a large reason that scoring has dropped over time. And yet we see Ovechkin staying consistent in his Goal Share in the last few years. (thank you based Trotz)

One day Ovechkin will slow-down. Will he hit Gretzky’s goal total? Perhaps, perhaps not. He’d need quite a few more years of 40+ goal seasons against goaltenders that continue to get better (and bigger). But one thing’s for sure, we may be seeing the best goalscorer ever in NHL history. Even if he never wins a ring (I hope he does!), don’t forget to take a moment and just stare in awe at the way he continues to score in a way we haven’t seen in a long time.

Poll Results

Earlier today I teased this article by asking how many seasons did Ovechkin have a greater Goal Share than Gretzky. At publishing time and thanks to a “Micah Blake McCurdy Bump”, 163 people voted, and overall were correct. Ovechkin was better in 7 seasons: 3 in the 20–26 age-seasons, and 4 since. I’m guessing we’ll see many more dominant seasons soon!

Exercise for the reader

Hockey Reference has their own method of adjusted goals: http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_adjusted_career.html — Gordie Howe, Jaromir Jagr, and Wayne Gretzky are 1,2,3 in their method, so comparing to Howe and the (still active!) Jagr would be quite interesting. Is Ovechkin scoring more than them? Could he lead this ranking after his career is finished? Let me know!