By Danny Page
Clinched, eliminated, and decided after two rounds of the Men's World Cup group stage. Every 32-team tournament from 1998 to 2022, set against 2026.
Across the seven 32-team World Cups, after two of three group games an average of 4.7 teams (15% of the field) had already clinched a knockout place and 5.0 (16%) were already out. 2026 looks different, especially on eliminations. With all twelve groups now through Matchday 2, 7 of the 48 teams (15%) have already clinched a knockout place and only 5 (10%) are mathematically out, because the 48-team format sends two-thirds of the field forward (top two per group plus the eight best third-placed teams), so finishing third is no longer fatal.
| After Matchday 2 | 1998–2022 avg | 2026 (so far) |
|---|---|---|
| Clinched a knockout place | 15% (4.7 of 32) | 15% (7 of 48) |
| Eliminated | 16% (5.0 of 32) | 10% (5 of 48) |
The other big change for 2026 is the tiebreaker order. When two teams finish tied on points, the first tiebreaker used to be goal difference across all three games; for 2026 it is head-to-head, so the result between the tied teams now comes first. That means if the top two teams have already played each other and one of them won, the winner can lock up first place before the final round is even played.
In the 32-team era this kind of early clinch was rare. It took one team winning both its games while the rest of the group drew or lost: a 6-2-1-1 split, where the runner-up on two points simply cannot reach six. Brazil and Nigeria both managed it in 1998, the only time it happened in that era. Head-to-head changes the picture: a 6-3-1-1 or 6-3-3-0 split can now settle first place after two games, as long as the team on six has already beaten everyone else who can still reach six: the lone rival on three in the first case, both of them in the second.
Winning your first two games still isn't enough on its own if you haven't yet faced the group's other strong team. Colombia tops Group K on a 6-4-1-0 split, but it hasn't played Portugal (four points), so the final round still holds a decisive game at the top, with the two meeting to decide who wins the group.
A team has clinched if no combination of final-round results (any scoreline) keeps it from a knockout place, won the group if first place is untouchable, and is eliminated if no result can get it through. For 1998–2022 a knockout place means a top-two finish; for 2026 it also includes the third-place route, so a team is only out once it cannot finish in the top three.
Simulating the final round 30,000 times with World-Football Elo ratings also counts the teams that were practically settled: at least 90% to advance, or to go out. 2026 stands out because of the sheer number of teams that are likely to advance after just two games. Powerhouses like Spain may not have clinched advancement yet, but their Elo rating and lead in the group make it almost certain that they'll get through to the knockout round.
Turn that around and you get a measure of tension: how many teams went into the final round with qualification still in doubt, neither a 90% lock to advance nor a 90% lock to go out. 2002 leads, with 2010 and 2022 just behind: a draw-heavy opening (10 of 16 games drawn), with only three teams winning both their first games, left most groups carrying a live three-team race into the last day. 2026 sits lower, with 18 of its 48 teams reaching Matchday 3 still in doubt, a smaller share than most past years. The expanded format locks plenty of teams in early (half the field is already 90% to advance), while the best-third safety net leaves very few clearly out.
| # | Tournament | In the balance | Teams |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2002 | 62% | 20 of 32 |
| 2 | 2010 | 59% | 19 of 32 |
| 2 | 2022 | 59% | 19 of 32 |
| 4 | 1998 | 44% | 14 of 32 |
| 4 | 2014 | 44% | 14 of 32 |
| 6 | 2018 | 38% | 12 of 32 |
| 6 | 2026 | 38% | 18 of 48 |
| 8 | 2006 | 34% | 11 of 32 |
“In the balance” = teams that were neither ≥90% to advance nor ≥90% to be eliminated entering Matchday 3, as a share of the field.
A few of the final group games still carry real stakes. Group H is the pick: Uruguay, a perennial contender, sits on just two points and has to get a result against group-leading Spain to feel safe, while Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia meet in a straight shootout, the winner well placed to go through. Group G has Belgium stumbling on two points and needing to see off New Zealand, with Iran, also on two, facing group-leading Egypt; both favorites still have work to do. Group J offers the marquee tie (France against Norway, both already through, playing for first place), alongside the format's strangest subplot: Senegal, pointless after two games, are still better than even money to advance and only need to beat Iraq to make it likely. And in Group C, Canada and Switzerland have quietly taken charge, both unbeaten on four points, and play each other to settle the group, with Bosnia and Qatar meeting to keep a best-third place in reach for the winner.
Status colors follow the charts: won group, clinched, eliminated.
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 6 pts, +4 | NOR | won group | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Scotland | 1 pts, -1 | MAR | alive | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| Morocco | 1 pts, -3 | SCO | alive | 0% | 36% | 64% |
| Norway | 2 pts, +0 | BRA | alive | 0% | 20% | 80% |
| Italy | 4 pts, +3 | AUT | alive | 87% | 94% | 6% |
| Chile | 2 pts, +0 | CMR | alive | 7% | 75% | 25% |
| Cameroon | 1 pts, -3 | CHI | alive | 0% | 19% | 81% |
| Austria | 2 pts, +0 | ITA | alive | 6% | 12% | 88% |
| Nigeria | 6 pts, +2 | PAR | won group | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Spain | 1 pts, -1 | BUL | alive | 0% | 56% | 44% |
| Paraguay | 2 pts, +0 | NGA | alive | 0% | 31% | 69% |
| Bulgaria | 1 pts, -1 | ESP | alive | 0% | 13% | 87% |
| France | 6 pts, +7 | DEN | clinched | 81% | 100% | 0% |
| Denmark | 4 pts, +1 | FRA | alive | 19% | 91% | 9% |
| South Africa | 1 pts, -3 | KSA | alive | 0% | 9% | 91% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 pts, -5 | RSA | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Netherlands | 4 pts, +5 | MEX | alive | 70% | 86% | 14% |
| Mexico | 4 pts, +2 | NED | alive | 29% | 76% | 24% |
| Belgium | 2 pts, +0 | KOR | alive | 0% | 38% | 62% |
| South Korea | 0 pts, -7 | BEL | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Argentina | 6 pts, +6 | CRO | clinched | 68% | 100% | 0% |
| Croatia | 6 pts, +3 | ARG | clinched | 32% | 100% | 0% |
| Jamaica | 0 pts, -7 | JPN | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Japan | 0 pts, -2 | JAM | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Serbia | 4 pts, +1 | USA | alive | 24% | 97% | 3% |
| Germany | 4 pts, +2 | IRN | alive | 73% | 94% | 6% |
| Iran | 3 pts, +0 | GER | alive | 3% | 9% | 91% |
| United States | 0 pts, -3 | SRB | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Romania | 6 pts, +2 | TUN | clinched | 93% | 100% | 0% |
| England | 3 pts, +1 | COL | alive | 6% | 85% | 15% |
| Colombia | 3 pts, +0 | ENG | alive | 1% | 15% | 85% |
| Tunisia | 0 pts, -3 | ROU | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 4 pts, +1 | URU | alive | 53% | 68% | 32% |
| Denmark | 4 pts, +1 | FRA | alive | 33% | 68% | 32% |
| Uruguay | 1 pts, -1 | SEN | alive | 6% | 32% | 68% |
| France | 1 pts, -1 | DEN | alive | 7% | 32% | 68% |
| Germany | 4 pts, +8 | CMR | alive | 64% | 78% | 22% |
| Cameroon | 4 pts, +1 | GER | alive | 36% | 63% | 37% |
| Republic of Ireland | 2 pts, +0 | KSA | alive | 0% | 59% | 41% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 pts, -9 | IRL | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| England | 4 pts, +1 | NGA | alive | 53% | 93% | 7% |
| Sweden | 4 pts, +1 | ARG | alive | 27% | 55% | 45% |
| Argentina | 3 pts, +0 | SWE | alive | 20% | 52% | 48% |
| Nigeria | 0 pts, -2 | ENG | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Spain | 6 pts, +4 | RSA | clinched | 90% | 100% | 0% |
| South Africa | 4 pts, +1 | ESP | alive | 10% | 77% | 23% |
| Paraguay | 1 pts, -2 | SVN | alive | 0% | 23% | 77% |
| Slovenia | 0 pts, -3 | PAR | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Brazil | 6 pts, +5 | CRC | clinched | 76% | 100% | 0% |
| Costa Rica | 4 pts, +2 | BRA | alive | 24% | 86% | 14% |
| Turkey | 1 pts, -1 | CHN | alive | 0% | 14% | 86% |
| China | 0 pts, -6 | TUR | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Mexico | 6 pts, +2 | ITA | alive | 57% | 78% | 22% |
| Croatia | 3 pts, +0 | ECU | alive | 9% | 65% | 35% |
| Italy | 3 pts, +1 | MEX | alive | 35% | 57% | 43% |
| Ecuador | 0 pts, -3 | CRO | alive | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Japan | 4 pts, +1 | TUN | alive | 72% | 96% | 4% |
| Russia | 3 pts, +1 | BEL | alive | 15% | 59% | 41% |
| Belgium | 2 pts, +0 | RUS | alive | 13% | 41% | 59% |
| Tunisia | 1 pts, -2 | JPN | alive | 0% | 4% | 96% |
| United States | 4 pts, +1 | POL | alive | 60% | 93% | 7% |
| Portugal | 3 pts, +3 | KOR | alive | 19% | 61% | 39% |
| South Korea | 4 pts, +2 | POR | alive | 20% | 46% | 54% |
| Poland | 0 pts, -6 | USA | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | 6 pts, +5 | GER | clinched | 46% | 100% | 0% |
| Germany | 6 pts, +3 | ECU | clinched | 54% | 100% | 0% |
| Costa Rica | 0 pts, -5 | POL | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Poland | 0 pts, -3 | CRC | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Argentina | 6 pts, +7 | NED | clinched | 60% | 100% | 0% |
| Netherlands | 6 pts, +2 | ARG | clinched | 40% | 100% | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 0 pts, -2 | SRB | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Serbia | 0 pts, -7 | CIV | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| England | 6 pts, +3 | SWE | clinched | 80% | 100% | 0% |
| Sweden | 4 pts, +1 | ENG | alive | 20% | 92% | 8% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 1 pts, -2 | PAR | alive | 0% | 8% | 92% |
| Paraguay | 0 pts, -2 | TRI | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Portugal | 6 pts, +3 | MEX | clinched | 70% | 100% | 0% |
| Mexico | 4 pts, +2 | POR | alive | 30% | 97% | 3% |
| Angola | 1 pts, -1 | IRN | alive | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| Iran | 0 pts, -4 | ANG | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Brazil | 6 pts, +3 | JPN | clinched | 98% | 100% | 0% |
| Australia | 3 pts, +0 | CRO | alive | 2% | 75% | 25% |
| Croatia | 1 pts, -1 | AUS | alive | 0% | 24% | 76% |
| Japan | 1 pts, -2 | BRA | alive | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Italy | 4 pts, +2 | CZE | alive | 60% | 87% | 13% |
| Czech Republic | 3 pts, +1 | ITA | alive | 32% | 53% | 47% |
| Ghana | 3 pts, +0 | USA | alive | 8% | 36% | 64% |
| United States | 1 pts, -3 | GHA | alive | 0% | 23% | 77% |
| France | 2 pts, +0 | TOG | alive | 13% | 78% | 22% |
| Switzerland | 4 pts, +2 | KOR | alive | 53% | 72% | 28% |
| South Korea | 4 pts, +1 | SUI | alive | 34% | 50% | 50% |
| Togo | 0 pts, -3 | FRA | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Spain | 6 pts, +6 | KSA | clinched | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Ukraine | 3 pts, +0 | TUN | alive | 0% | 70% | 30% |
| Tunisia | 1 pts, -2 | UKR | alive | 0% | 30% | 70% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1 pts, -4 | ESP | alive | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 4 pts, +2 | URU | alive | 48% | 96% | 4% |
| Uruguay | 4 pts, +3 | MEX | alive | 52% | 94% | 6% |
| France | 1 pts, -2 | RSA | alive | 0% | 10% | 90% |
| South Africa | 1 pts, -3 | FRA | alive | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| United States | 2 pts, +0 | ALG | alive | 41% | 73% | 27% |
| England | 2 pts, +0 | SVN | alive | 42% | 71% | 29% |
| Slovenia | 4 pts, +1 | ENG | alive | 18% | 46% | 54% |
| Algeria | 1 pts, -1 | USA | alive | 0% | 10% | 90% |
| Argentina | 6 pts, +4 | GRE | alive | 99% | 100% | 0% |
| South Korea | 3 pts, -1 | NGA | alive | 0% | 71% | 29% |
| Nigeria | 0 pts, -2 | KOR | alive | 0% | 18% | 82% |
| Greece | 3 pts, -1 | ARG | alive | 0% | 11% | 89% |
| Germany | 3 pts, +3 | GHA | alive | 59% | 72% | 28% |
| Serbia | 3 pts, +0 | AUS | alive | 11% | 60% | 40% |
| Ghana | 4 pts, +1 | GER | alive | 30% | 59% | 41% |
| Australia | 1 pts, -4 | SRB | alive | 0% | 8% | 92% |
| Netherlands | 6 pts, +3 | CMR | clinched | 99% | 100% | 0% |
| Japan | 3 pts, +0 | DEN | alive | 0% | 62% | 38% |
| Denmark | 3 pts, -1 | JPN | alive | 0% | 38% | 62% |
| Cameroon | 0 pts, -2 | NED | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Italy | 2 pts, +0 | SVK | alive | 20% | 85% | 15% |
| Paraguay | 4 pts, +2 | NZL | alive | 70% | 85% | 15% |
| New Zealand | 2 pts, +0 | PAR | alive | 11% | 24% | 76% |
| Slovakia | 1 pts, -2 | ITA | alive | 0% | 7% | 93% |
| Brazil | 6 pts, +3 | POR | clinched | 90% | 100% | 0% |
| Portugal | 4 pts, +7 | BRA | alive | 10% | 100% | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 1 pts, -2 | PRK | alive | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| North Korea | 0 pts, -8 | CIV | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Chile | 6 pts, +2 | ESP | alive | 43% | 78% | 22% |
| Spain | 3 pts, +1 | CHI | alive | 51% | 75% | 25% |
| Switzerland | 3 pts, +0 | HON | alive | 6% | 47% | 53% |
| Honduras | 0 pts, -3 | SUI | alive | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 4 pts, +2 | CMR | alive | 87% | 100% | 0% |
| Mexico | 4 pts, +1 | CRO | alive | 9% | 72% | 28% |
| Croatia | 3 pts, +2 | MEX | alive | 3% | 29% | 71% |
| Cameroon | 0 pts, -5 | BRA | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Chile | 6 pts, +4 | NED | clinched | 29% | 100% | 0% |
| Netherlands | 6 pts, +5 | CHI | clinched | 71% | 100% | 0% |
| Australia | 0 pts, -3 | ESP | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Spain | 0 pts, -6 | AUS | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Colombia | 6 pts, +4 | JPN | clinched | 99% | 100% | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 3 pts, +0 | GRE | alive | 1% | 70% | 30% |
| Greece | 1 pts, -3 | CIV | alive | 0% | 25% | 75% |
| Japan | 1 pts, -1 | COL | alive | 0% | 5% | 95% |
| Costa Rica | 6 pts, +3 | ENG | clinched | 90% | 100% | 0% |
| Italy | 3 pts, +0 | URU | alive | 5% | 61% | 39% |
| Uruguay | 3 pts, -1 | ITA | alive | 4% | 39% | 61% |
| England | 0 pts, -2 | CRC | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Argentina | 6 pts, +2 | NGA | clinched | 89% | 100% | 0% |
| Nigeria | 4 pts, +1 | ARG | alive | 11% | 74% | 26% |
| Iran | 1 pts, -1 | BIH | alive | 0% | 26% | 74% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0 pts, -2 | IRN | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| France | 6 pts, +6 | ECU | alive | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Switzerland | 3 pts, -2 | HON | alive | 0% | 64% | 36% |
| Ecuador | 3 pts, +0 | FRA | alive | 0% | 35% | 65% |
| Honduras | 0 pts, -4 | SUI | alive | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Germany | 4 pts, +4 | USA | alive | 84% | 100% | 0% |
| United States | 4 pts, +1 | GER | alive | 16% | 81% | 19% |
| Ghana | 1 pts, -1 | POR | alive | 0% | 10% | 90% |
| Portugal | 1 pts, -4 | GHA | alive | 0% | 9% | 91% |
| Belgium | 6 pts, +2 | KOR | clinched | 97% | 100% | 0% |
| Russia | 1 pts, -1 | ALG | alive | 0% | 50% | 50% |
| Algeria | 3 pts, +1 | RUS | alive | 3% | 49% | 51% |
| South Korea | 1 pts, -2 | BEL | alive | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 6 pts, +7 | URU | clinched | 39% | 100% | 0% |
| Uruguay | 6 pts, +2 | RUS | clinched | 61% | 100% | 0% |
| Egypt | 0 pts, -3 | KSA | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Saudi Arabia | 0 pts, -6 | EGY | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Spain | 4 pts, +1 | MAR | alive | 60% | 99% | 1% |
| Portugal | 4 pts, +1 | IRN | alive | 36% | 83% | 17% |
| Iran | 3 pts, +0 | POR | alive | 4% | 18% | 82% |
| Morocco | 0 pts, -2 | ESP | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Croatia | 6 pts, +5 | ISL | clinched | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Argentina | 1 pts, -3 | NGA | alive | 0% | 60% | 40% |
| Nigeria | 3 pts, +0 | ARG | alive | 0% | 36% | 64% |
| Iceland | 1 pts, -2 | CRO | alive | 0% | 5% | 95% |
| France | 6 pts, +2 | DEN | clinched | 82% | 100% | 0% |
| Denmark | 4 pts, +1 | FRA | alive | 18% | 88% | 12% |
| Australia | 1 pts, -1 | PER | alive | 0% | 12% | 88% |
| Peru | 0 pts, -2 | AUS | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Switzerland | 4 pts, +1 | CRC | alive | 24% | 99% | 1% |
| Brazil | 4 pts, +2 | SRB | alive | 74% | 96% | 4% |
| Serbia | 3 pts, +0 | BRA | alive | 2% | 5% | 95% |
| Costa Rica | 0 pts, -3 | SUI | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Germany | 3 pts, +0 | KOR | alive | 12% | 90% | 10% |
| Mexico | 6 pts, +2 | SWE | alive | 80% | 86% | 14% |
| Sweden | 3 pts, +0 | MEX | alive | 8% | 23% | 77% |
| South Korea | 0 pts, -2 | GER | alive | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| Belgium | 6 pts, +6 | ENG | clinched | 51% | 100% | 0% |
| England | 6 pts, +6 | BEL | clinched | 49% | 100% | 0% |
| Panama | 0 pts, -8 | TUN | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Tunisia | 0 pts, -4 | PAN | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Japan | 4 pts, +1 | POL | alive | 40% | 85% | 15% |
| Colombia | 3 pts, +2 | SEN | alive | 31% | 60% | 40% |
| Senegal | 4 pts, +1 | COL | alive | 29% | 55% | 45% |
| Poland | 0 pts, -4 | JPN | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 4 pts, +2 | QAT | alive | 66% | 100% | 0% |
| Ecuador | 4 pts, +2 | SEN | alive | 30% | 78% | 22% |
| Senegal | 3 pts, +0 | ECU | alive | 4% | 22% | 78% |
| Qatar | 0 pts, -4 | NED | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| England | 4 pts, +4 | WAL | alive | 84% | 100% | 0% |
| Iran | 3 pts, -2 | USA | alive | 11% | 60% | 40% |
| United States | 2 pts, +0 | IRN | alive | 4% | 37% | 63% |
| Wales | 1 pts, -2 | ENG | alive | 0% | 3% | 97% |
| Argentina | 3 pts, +1 | POL | alive | 71% | 85% | 15% |
| Poland | 4 pts, +2 | ARG | alive | 24% | 62% | 38% |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 pts, -1 | MEX | alive | 5% | 28% | 72% |
| Mexico | 1 pts, -2 | KSA | alive | 0% | 25% | 75% |
| France | 6 pts, +4 | TUN | clinched | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Denmark | 1 pts, -1 | AUS | alive | 0% | 55% | 45% |
| Australia | 3 pts, -2 | DEN | alive | 0% | 43% | 57% |
| Tunisia | 1 pts, -1 | FRA | alive | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| Morocco | 4 pts, +2 | CAN | alive | 37% | 91% | 9% |
| Croatia | 4 pts, +3 | BEL | alive | 43% | 68% | 32% |
| Belgium | 3 pts, -1 | CRO | alive | 20% | 40% | 60% |
| Canada | 0 pts, -4 | MAR | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Spain | 4 pts, +7 | JPN | alive | 83% | 97% | 3% |
| Germany | 1 pts, -1 | CRC | alive | 0% | 44% | 56% |
| Costa Rica | 3 pts, -6 | GER | alive | 5% | 39% | 61% |
| Japan | 3 pts, +0 | ESP | alive | 13% | 20% | 80% |
| Brazil | 6 pts, +3 | CMR | clinched | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Switzerland | 3 pts, +0 | SRB | alive | 0% | 70% | 30% |
| Serbia | 1 pts, -2 | SUI | alive | 0% | 30% | 70% |
| Cameroon | 1 pts, -1 | BRA | alive | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Portugal | 6 pts, +3 | KOR | clinched | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Uruguay | 1 pts, -2 | GHA | alive | 0% | 65% | 35% |
| Ghana | 3 pts, +0 | URU | alive | 0% | 29% | 71% |
| South Korea | 1 pts, -1 | POR | alive | 0% | 6% | 94% |
| Team | After MD2 | MD3 vs | Status | P(win) | P(adv) | P(out) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 6 pts, +3 | CZE | won group | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| South Korea | 3 pts, +0 | RSA | alive | 0% | 98% | 2% |
| Czech Republic | 1 pts, -1 | MEX | alive | 0% | 12% | 88% |
| South Africa | 1 pts, -2 | KOR | alive | 0% | 12% | 88% |
| United States | 6 pts, +5 | TUR | won group | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Australia | 3 pts, +0 | PAR | alive | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Paraguay | 3 pts, -2 | AUS | alive | 0% | 87% | 13% |
| Turkey | 0 pts, -3 | USA | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Canada | 4 pts, +6 | SUI | alive | 53% | 100% | 0% |
| Switzerland | 4 pts, +3 | CAN | alive | 47% | 100% | 0% |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 pts, -3 | QAT | alive | 0% | 48% | 52% |
| Qatar | 1 pts, -6 | BIH | alive | 0% | 26% | 74% |
| Brazil | 4 pts, +3 | SCO | alive | 66% | 100% | 0% |
| Morocco | 4 pts, +1 | HAI | alive | 32% | 100% | 0% |
| Scotland | 3 pts, +0 | BRA | alive | 2% | 87% | 13% |
| Haiti | 0 pts, -4 | MAR | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Germany | 6 pts, +7 | ECU | won group | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Ivory Coast | 3 pts, +0 | CUW | alive | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Ecuador | 1 pts, -1 | GER | alive | 0% | 27% | 73% |
| Curaçao | 1 pts, -6 | CIV | alive | 0% | 11% | 89% |
| Japan | 4 pts, +4 | SWE | alive | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Netherlands | 4 pts, +4 | TUN | alive | 65% | 100% | 0% |
| Sweden | 3 pts, +0 | JPN | alive | 2% | 93% | 7% |
| Tunisia | 0 pts, -8 | NED | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Egypt | 4 pts, +2 | IRN | alive | 52% | 100% | 0% |
| Belgium | 2 pts, +0 | NZL | alive | 20% | 90% | 10% |
| Iran | 2 pts, +0 | EGY | alive | 27% | 71% | 29% |
| New Zealand | 1 pts, -2 | BEL | alive | 0% | 10% | 90% |
| Spain | 4 pts, +4 | URU | alive | 90% | 100% | 0% |
| Cape Verde | 2 pts, +0 | KSA | alive | 2% | 64% | 36% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1 pts, -4 | CPV | alive | 0% | 37% | 63% |
| Uruguay | 2 pts, +0 | ESP | alive | 8% | 33% | 67% |
| Argentina | 6 pts, +5 | JOR | won group | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Austria | 3 pts, +0 | ALG | alive | 0% | 96% | 4% |
| Algeria | 3 pts, -2 | AUT | alive | 0% | 86% | 14% |
| Jordan | 0 pts, -3 | ARG | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| France | 6 pts, +5 | NOR | clinched | 82% | 100% | 0% |
| Norway | 6 pts, +4 | FRA | clinched | 18% | 100% | 0% |
| Senegal | 0 pts, -3 | IRQ | alive | 0% | 57% | 43% |
| Iraq | 0 pts, -6 | SEN | alive | 0% | 8% | 92% |
| Colombia | 6 pts, +3 | POR | clinched | 70% | 100% | 0% |
| Portugal | 4 pts, +5 | COL | alive | 30% | 100% | 0% |
| DR Congo | 1 pts, -1 | UZB | alive | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| Uzbekistan | 0 pts, -7 | COD | alive | 0% | 15% | 85% |
| England | 4 pts, +2 | PAN | alive | 80% | 100% | 0% |
| Ghana | 4 pts, +1 | CRO | alive | 3% | 100% | 0% |
| Croatia | 3 pts, -1 | GHA | alive | 16% | 99% | 1% |
| Panama | 0 pts, -2 | ENG | eliminated | 0% | 0% | 100% |
Match results: the martj42 international results dataset. Groups and matchdays are reconstructed from the fixture graph (the source has no group labels). Elo follows the eloratings.net scheme (importance-weighted K, goal-difference multiplier, no home advantage at the neutral finals) over all internationals since 1872, snapshotted entering the final group round. The final round is simulated with independent-Poisson scorelines tuned so each match's implied win expectation matches its Elo expectation (mean 2.6 goals). Tiebreakers: 1998–2022 use points → overall goal difference → goals → head-to-head; 2026 uses points → head-to-head → overall goal difference → goals, with the eight best third-placed teams advancing.